Polymarket ETH Up/Down 15m historical order book & trade data
14.8M order-book and trade events for ETH 15-minute Up/Down markets since 2025-06-01 — about 28,826 events a day across 96 windows.
Coverage
ETH Up/Down 15m data coverage
What is recorded, how often it updates and how much there is.
History start
2025-06-01
512 days of history
Events recorded
14,759,100
≈ 14.8M as of 2026-10-25
Avg events / day
28,826
book snapshot · book delta · trade · resolution
Update frequency
Book deltas and trades streamed as they occur; 96 new windows every UTC day
Daily activity · last 30 days
Indicative daily event volume, last 30 days to 2026-10-25. Shape modeled from collector stats; mean matches the average events/day above.
About this market
What is ETH Up/Down 15m?
ETH 15m is where the ETH-versus-BTC beta view gets traded: when BTC prints a move, the ETH Up price usually reprices within a few hundred milliseconds, often overshooting before settling. Each 15-minute window opens on a quarter-hour boundary as a new Up/Down market, so there are 96 distinct markets per day, and each one resolves against the spot price at the window's start.
Ether usually moves with Bitcoin but with a larger amplitude, so the Up/Down outcome is a bet on beta as much as direction. Over a 15-minute horizon, ETH also reacts to things BTC ignores: ETH/BTC rotations, staking and ETF-flow headlines, and DeFi liquidations that dump collateral into the market. When BTC is quiet, those ETH-specific catalysts are what flip an Up/Down window.
Fifteen minutes is long enough for a model to act on a signal and short enough that a day gives you ninety-six independent samples. It is the interval most research notebooks start with: enough windows for statistical power in a week of data, and enough time inside each window to study how the Up price drifts when spot trends.
What moves ETH 15m Up/Down
- Staking and ETF-flow headlines that change how much supply is liquid
- DeFi stress, because ETH collateral gets liquidated when lending markets de-risk
- Window structure: quarter-hour boundaries, where fresh liquidity is posted and the opening Up price re-anchors near 0.50
Schema
ETH Up/Down 15m fields and sample rows
The same columns are returned by the API and in Parquet and CSV files.
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| ts_exchange | string | Exchange timestamp (ISO-8601, ms) |
| ts_recv | string | AymarData receive timestamp |
| market | string | Window slug: <family>-<window start unix> |
| outcome | string | "up" or "down" token |
| event_type | string | last_trade_price | price_change | book |
| side | string | "buy" | "sell" for trades, "bid" | "ask" for book events |
| price | number | Probability price, 0–1 |
| size | number | Shares traded or resting size at the level |
Sample rows
| ts_exchange | ts_recv | market | outcome | event_type | side | price | size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22T14:39:53.233Z | 2026-10-22T14:39:53.280Z | eth-updown-15m-1792679400 | up | last_trade_price | buy | 0.46 | 150 |
| 2026-10-22T14:39:53.757Z | 2026-10-22T14:39:53.802Z | eth-updown-15m-1792679400 | down | price_change | ask | 0.55 | 2237 |
| 2026-10-22T14:39:54.024Z | 2026-10-22T14:39:54.075Z | eth-updown-15m-1792679400 | up | last_trade_price | sell | 0.45 | 147 |
Illustrative rows for eth-updown-15m. Market is the window slug (eth-updown-15m-<start unix>); prices are probabilities between 0 and 1.
Code
Pull ETH Up/Down 15m in Python, cURL or MCP
Market id: eth-updown-15m. Export AYMARDATA_API_KEY from your dashboard, then run the Python requests example.
import os
import requests
API = "https://api.aymardata.com/v1"
KEY = os.environ["AYMARDATA_API_KEY"] # export AYMARDATA_API_KEY=ad_live_…
H = {"Authorization": f"Bearer {KEY}", "User-Agent": "aymardata-docs/1.0"}
# ETH Up/Down 15m: every trade in one 15-minute window
trades = requests.get(
f"{API}/trades",
headers=H,
params={
"source": "polymarket",
"market": "eth-updown-15m",
"outcome": "up",
"start": "2026-10-22T14:30:00Z",
"end": "2026-10-22T14:45:00Z",
"limit": 500,
},
timeout=30,
).json()["data"]
print(len(trades), trades[0]["price"], trades[-1]["price"])
book = requests.get(
f"{API}/book",
headers=H,
params={
"source": "polymarket",
"market": "eth-updown-15m",
"outcome": "up",
"at": "2026-10-22T14:40:00Z",
"depth": 10,
},
timeout=30,
).json()
print(book.get("spread"), len(trades))FAQ
ETH Up/Down 15m: common questions
What is the market id for ETH 15m windows?
The family is eth-updown-15m; each window adds the window-start Unix time, a multiple of 900 seconds, for example eth-updown-15m-1792681200. Query the family with search_markets or /v1/markets to list windows, then pass a window slug to /v1/book or /v1/trades.
How many ETH 15m windows resolve each day?
96. That gives roughly 49,152 resolved windows since 2025-06-01 — enough to run proper out-of-sample tests on Up/Down pricing models.
What moves the ETH 15m Up/Down price most?
Two things dominate. First, staking and ETF-flow headlines that change how much supply is liquid. Second, DeFi stress, because ETH collateral gets liquidated when lending markets de-risk. On top of that sits the structural driver of every 15-minute window: quarter-hour boundaries, where fresh liquidity is posted and the opening Up price re-anchors near 0.50. Liquidity here is second only to BTC, with spreads a tick or two wider and more variance in resting size.
How does ETH 15m Up/Down compare with the ETHUSDT order book on Binance?
Binance is where price discovery happens; Polymarket prices a probability on top of it. Joining eth-updown-15m with Binance ETHUSDT spot and perp ticks on timestamp lets you measure how many milliseconds the Up price lags a spot move. See the Binance ETH spot and perp pages for the matching feeds.
How big is the eth-updown-15m dataset?
About 14.8M events recorded since 2025-06-01, or roughly 28,826 events a day across about 49,152 windows. Every event carries both exchange and receive timestamps.
Related
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Binance USDⓈ-M perps: ETHUSDT perp
Binance perpetual: funding and mark price
Binance spot: ETHUSDT spot
Binance spot order book
Hyperliquid: ETH perp
On-chain perpetual
Kalshi: KXETHD ETH Daily
Kalshi contracts on the same asset
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