Polymarket BTC Up/Down 15m historical order book & trade data
24.8M order-book and trade events for BTC 15-minute Up/Down markets since 2025-06-01 — about 48,428 events a day across 96 windows.
Coverage
BTC Up/Down 15m data coverage
What is recorded, how often it updates and how much there is.
History start
2025-06-01
512 days of history
Events recorded
24,795,288
≈ 24.8M as of 2026-10-25
Avg events / day
48,428
book snapshot · book delta · trade · resolution
Update frequency
Book deltas and trades streamed as they occur; 96 new windows every UTC day
Daily activity · last 30 days
Indicative daily event volume, last 30 days to 2026-10-25. Shape modeled from collector stats; mean matches the average events/day above.
About this market
What is BTC Up/Down 15m?
The BTC 15-minute market is Polymarket's flagship crypto product — deep enough that the spread sits at a single tick for most of each window, and the default test bed for Up/Down fair-value models. Each 15-minute window opens on a quarter-hour boundary as a new Up/Down market, so there are 96 distinct markets per day, and each one resolves against the spot price at the window's start.
Bitcoin is the underlying that every other Up/Down market is judged against. Spot BTC reacts to US macro prints, spot-ETF flows and liquidation cascades on perpetual venues, and the Polymarket book reprices within a fraction of a second when any of them hits. Over a 15-minute horizon the Up price is dominated by distance-to-strike: a $30 move that matters in the final minute is noise early in the window.
Fifteen minutes is long enough for a model to act on a signal and short enough that a day gives you ninety-six independent samples. It is the interval most research notebooks start with: enough windows for statistical power in a week of data, and enough time inside each window to study how the Up price drifts when spot trends.
What moves BTC 15m Up/Down
- Macro prints (CPI, payrolls, FOMC) that reprice the dollar and real yields within seconds
- Liquidation cascades on leveraged venues, which turn a 1% move into a 3% wick
- Window structure: quarter-hour boundaries, where fresh liquidity is posted and the opening Up price re-anchors near 0.50
Schema
BTC Up/Down 15m fields and sample rows
The same columns are returned by the API and in Parquet and CSV files.
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| ts_exchange | string | Exchange timestamp (ISO-8601, ms) |
| ts_recv | string | AymarData receive timestamp |
| market | string | Window slug: <family>-<window start unix> |
| outcome | string | "up" or "down" token |
| event_type | string | last_trade_price | price_change | book |
| side | string | "buy" | "sell" for trades, "bid" | "ask" for book events |
| price | number | Probability price, 0–1 |
| size | number | Shares traded or resting size at the level |
Sample rows
| ts_exchange | ts_recv | market | outcome | event_type | side | price | size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22T14:38:41.632Z | 2026-10-22T14:38:41.683Z | btc-updown-15m-1792679400 | up | last_trade_price | buy | 0.58 | 363 |
| 2026-10-22T14:38:42.365Z | 2026-10-22T14:38:42.397Z | btc-updown-15m-1792679400 | down | price_change | ask | 0.43 | 7155 |
| 2026-10-22T14:38:42.550Z | 2026-10-22T14:38:42.601Z | btc-updown-15m-1792679400 | up | last_trade_price | sell | 0.57 | 31 |
Illustrative rows for btc-updown-15m. Market is the window slug (btc-updown-15m-<start unix>); prices are probabilities between 0 and 1.
Code
Pull BTC Up/Down 15m in Python, cURL or MCP
Market id: btc-updown-15m. Export AYMARDATA_API_KEY from your dashboard, then run the Python requests example.
import os
import requests
API = "https://api.aymardata.com/v1"
KEY = os.environ["AYMARDATA_API_KEY"] # export AYMARDATA_API_KEY=ad_live_…
H = {"Authorization": f"Bearer {KEY}", "User-Agent": "aymardata-docs/1.0"}
# BTC Up/Down 15m: every trade in one 15-minute window
trades = requests.get(
f"{API}/trades",
headers=H,
params={
"source": "polymarket",
"market": "btc-updown-15m",
"outcome": "up",
"start": "2026-10-22T14:30:00Z",
"end": "2026-10-22T14:45:00Z",
"limit": 500,
},
timeout=30,
).json()["data"]
print(len(trades), trades[0]["price"], trades[-1]["price"])
book = requests.get(
f"{API}/book",
headers=H,
params={
"source": "polymarket",
"market": "btc-updown-15m",
"outcome": "up",
"at": "2026-10-22T14:40:00Z",
"depth": 10,
},
timeout=30,
).json()
print(book.get("spread"), len(trades))FAQ
BTC Up/Down 15m: common questions
What is the market id for BTC 15m windows?
The family is btc-updown-15m; each window adds the window-start Unix time, a multiple of 900 seconds, for example btc-updown-15m-1792681200. Query the family with search_markets or /v1/markets to list windows, then pass a window slug to /v1/book or /v1/trades.
How many BTC 15m windows resolve each day?
96. That gives roughly 49,152 resolved windows since 2025-06-01 — enough to run proper out-of-sample tests on Up/Down pricing models.
What moves the BTC 15m Up/Down price most?
Two things dominate. First, macro prints (CPI, payrolls, FOMC) that reprice the dollar and real yields within seconds. Second, liquidation cascades on leveraged venues, which turn a 1% move into a 3% wick. On top of that sits the structural driver of every 15-minute window: quarter-hour boundaries, where fresh liquidity is posted and the opening Up price re-anchors near 0.50. Liquidity here is the deepest of any coin in the family, with the tightest spreads and the most resting size at each level.
How does BTC 15m Up/Down compare with the BTCUSDT order book on Binance?
Binance is where price discovery happens; Polymarket prices a probability on top of it. Joining btc-updown-15m with Binance BTCUSDT spot and perp ticks on timestamp lets you measure how many milliseconds the Up price lags a spot move. See the Binance BTC spot and perp pages for the matching feeds.
How big is the btc-updown-15m dataset?
About 24.8M events recorded since 2025-06-01, or roughly 48,428 events a day across about 49,152 windows. Every event carries both exchange and receive timestamps.
Related
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Binance USDⓈ-M perps: BTCUSDT perp
Binance perpetual: funding and mark price
Binance spot: BTCUSDT spot
Binance spot order book
Hyperliquid: BTC perp
On-chain perpetual
Kalshi: KXBTCD BTC Daily
Kalshi contracts on the same asset
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