Polymarket BTC Up/Down 4h historical order book & trade data
8.00M order-book and trade events for BTC 4-hour Up/Down markets since 2025-06-01 — about 15,622 events a day across 6 windows.
Coverage
BTC Up/Down 4h data coverage
What is recorded, how often it updates and how much there is.
History start
2025-06-01
512 days of history
Events recorded
7,998,480
≈ 8.00M as of 2026-10-25
Avg events / day
15,622
book snapshot · book delta · trade · resolution
Update frequency
Book deltas and trades streamed as they occur; 6 new windows every UTC day
Daily activity · last 30 days
Indicative daily event volume, last 30 days to 2026-10-25. Shape modeled from collector stats; mean matches the average events/day above.
About this market
What is BTC Up/Down 4h?
Four-hour BTC windows are long enough for a real trend to develop yet short enough that carry doesn't dominate, which makes them the cleanest place to compare momentum against mean-reversion priors. Four-hour windows run on fixed boundaries, giving six markets a day. Each window spans a regional trading session — Asia, Europe, the US morning — so the Up/Down binary is effectively a bet on who wins that session.
Bitcoin is the underlying that every other Up/Down market is judged against. Spot BTC reacts to US macro prints, spot-ETF flows and liquidation cascades on perpetual venues, and the Polymarket book reprices within a fraction of a second when any of them hits. Over a 4-hour horizon the Up price is dominated by distance-to-strike: a $30 move that matters in the final minute is noise early in the window.
With only six windows a day the sample size grows slowly, but each window carries real information: the Up price moves in steps as new data arrives, and liquidity providers show up with size. These windows are good for testing trend-following signals and for studying how the book anchors to intraday session behaviour.
What moves BTC 4h Up/Down
- US spot-ETF creations and redemptions, which show up as persistent one-way flow around the New York cash open
- Macro prints (CPI, payrolls, FOMC) that reprice the dollar and real yields within seconds
- Window structure: regional session handovers — Asia into Europe into the US — which is where intraday direction usually changes
Schema
BTC Up/Down 4h fields and sample rows
The same columns are returned by the API and in Parquet and CSV files.
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| ts_exchange | string | Exchange timestamp (ISO-8601, ms) |
| ts_recv | string | AymarData receive timestamp |
| market | string | Window slug: <family>-<window start unix> |
| outcome | string | "up" or "down" token |
| event_type | string | last_trade_price | price_change | book |
| side | string | "buy" | "sell" for trades, "bid" | "ask" for book events |
| price | number | Probability price, 0–1 |
| size | number | Shares traded or resting size at the level |
Sample rows
| ts_exchange | ts_recv | market | outcome | event_type | side | price | size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22T14:40:59.777Z | 2026-10-22T14:40:59.816Z | btc-updown-4h-1792670400 | up | last_trade_price | buy | 0.6 | 359 |
| 2026-10-22T14:41:00.397Z | 2026-10-22T14:41:00.432Z | btc-updown-4h-1792670400 | down | price_change | ask | 0.41 | 8090 |
| 2026-10-22T14:41:00.606Z | 2026-10-22T14:41:00.658Z | btc-updown-4h-1792670400 | up | last_trade_price | sell | 0.59 | 277 |
Illustrative rows for btc-updown-4h. Market is the window slug (btc-updown-4h-<start unix>); prices are probabilities between 0 and 1.
Code
Pull BTC Up/Down 4h in Python, cURL or MCP
Market id: btc-updown-4h. Export AYMARDATA_API_KEY from your dashboard, then run the Python requests example.
import os
import requests
API = "https://api.aymardata.com/v1"
KEY = os.environ["AYMARDATA_API_KEY"] # export AYMARDATA_API_KEY=ad_live_…
H = {"Authorization": f"Bearer {KEY}", "User-Agent": "aymardata-docs/1.0"}
# BTC Up/Down 4h: every trade in one 4-hour window
trades = requests.get(
f"{API}/trades",
headers=H,
params={
"source": "polymarket",
"market": "btc-updown-4h",
"outcome": "up",
"start": "2026-10-22T12:00:00Z",
"end": "2026-10-22T16:00:00Z",
"limit": 500,
},
timeout=30,
).json()["data"]
print(len(trades), trades[0]["price"], trades[-1]["price"])
book = requests.get(
f"{API}/book",
headers=H,
params={
"source": "polymarket",
"market": "btc-updown-4h",
"outcome": "up",
"at": "2026-10-22T14:00:00Z",
"depth": 10,
},
timeout=30,
).json()
print(book.get("spread"), len(trades))FAQ
BTC Up/Down 4h: common questions
What do the BTC 4h windows cover?
Six fixed four-hour windows per day, each of which spans a regional trading session. btc-updown-4h markets resolve independently of the shorter windows, so you can compare a 4h book with the four 1h books inside it.
Is there enough BTC 4h history for a backtest?
Yes — six windows a day since 2025-06-01 is about 3,072 resolved markets. That is thinner than 5m or 15m, but each window carries many more book updates, so it works well for per-window features.
What moves the BTC 4h Up/Down price most?
Two things dominate. First, US spot-ETF creations and redemptions, which show up as persistent one-way flow around the New York cash open. Second, macro prints (CPI, payrolls, FOMC) that reprice the dollar and real yields within seconds. On top of that sits the structural driver of every 4-hour window: regional session handovers — Asia into Europe into the US — which is where intraday direction usually changes. Liquidity here is the deepest of any coin in the family, with the tightest spreads and the most resting size at each level.
How does BTC 4h Up/Down compare with the BTCUSDT order book on Binance?
Binance is where price discovery happens; Polymarket prices a probability on top of it. Joining btc-updown-4h with Binance BTCUSDT spot and perp ticks on timestamp lets you measure how many milliseconds the Up price lags a spot move. See the Binance BTC spot and perp pages for the matching feeds.
How big is the btc-updown-4h dataset?
About 8.00M events recorded since 2025-06-01, or roughly 15,622 events a day across about 3,072 windows. Every event carries both exchange and receive timestamps.
Related
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Binance USDⓈ-M perps: BTCUSDT perp
Binance perpetual: funding and mark price
Binance spot: BTCUSDT spot
Binance spot order book
Hyperliquid: BTC perp
On-chain perpetual
Kalshi: KXBTCD BTC Daily
Kalshi contracts on the same asset
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