Kalshi KXRATECUT: Fed rate-cut path and count — order book & trade data
33.0K book and trade events for Kalshi's fed rate-cut path and count markets, recorded live since 2026-10-01 — about 1,320 events a day.
Coverage
KXRATECUT Rate Cuts data coverage
What is recorded, how often it updates and how much there is.
Recording since
2026-10-01
25 days so far · no backfill
Events recorded
33,000
≈ 33.0K as of 2026-10-25
Avg events / day
1,320
book snapshot · book delta · trade
Update frequency
Order-book snapshots, deltas and trades streamed in real time
Daily activity · last 25 days
Indicative daily event volume, last 25 days to 2026-10-25. Shape modeled from collector stats; mean matches the average events/day above.
About this market
What is KXRATECUT Rate Cuts?
KXRATECUT prices how many cuts the Fed will deliver over a stated window — a slow-moving summary of the expected path rather than any one FOMC meeting. AymarData has been recording the KXRATECUT series since 2026-10-01 and holds 33.0K events so far — about 1,320 a day. History is forward-only; we record live and do not backfill Kalshi.
Contracts are listed for each plausible cut count. Trading is thinner than the single-meeting Fed series and clusters around data releases that change the full path, which is why daily event counts are lower and spikier than KXFED.
Because the series moves slowly, it is useful for regression work: compare changes in the rate-cut price with changes in the single-meeting Fed series and BTC to measure how much of each macro surprise ends up in the full-year path.
What moves KXRATECUT
- Cumulative economic data, particularly inflation and labour reports
- Changes in the Fed's dot plot at quarterly meetings
- Shocks that change the expected terminal rate, such as tariffs or financial stress
Schema
KXRATECUT Rate Cuts fields and sample rows
The same columns are returned by the API and in Parquet and CSV files.
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| ts_ms | int64 | Exchange event time, Unix milliseconds |
| ticker | string | Full Kalshi market ticker |
| event_type | string | book_snapshot | book_delta | trade |
| side | string | buy / sell on trades; bid / ask on book events |
| yes_bid | number | Best YES bid, 0–1 dollars |
| yes_ask | number | Best YES ask, 0–1 dollars |
| volume | int64 | Contracts traded or resting at the level |
Sample rows
| ts_ms | ticker | event_type | side | yes_bid | yes_ask | volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1792672202309 | KXRATECUT-26DEC31-T1 | book_snapshot | bid | 0.55 | 0.59 | 788 |
| 1792672202685 | KXRATECUT-26DEC31-T2 | trade | buy | 0.28 | 0.32 | 2848 |
| 1792672203865 | KXRATECUT-26DEC31-T3 | book_delta | ask | 0.08 | 0.12 | 3003 |
Illustrative rows for the KXRATECUT series; tickers follow Kalshi's naming and prices are YES quotes in dollars (0–1).
Code
Pull KXRATECUT Rate Cuts in Python, cURL or MCP
Market id: KXRATECUT-26DEC31-T1. Export AYMARDATA_API_KEY from your dashboard, then run the Python requests example.
import os
import requests
API = "https://api.aymardata.com/v1"
KEY = os.environ["AYMARDATA_API_KEY"] # export AYMARDATA_API_KEY=ad_live_…
H = {"Authorization": f"Bearer {KEY}", "User-Agent": "aymardata-docs/1.0"}
# KXRATECUT: ten minutes of trades and book updates for one contract
trades = requests.get(
f"{API}/trades",
headers=H,
params={
"source": "kalshi",
"market": "KXRATECUT-26DEC31-T1",
"start": "2026-10-22T12:25:00Z",
"end": "2026-10-22T12:35:00Z",
"limit": 500,
},
timeout=30,
).json()["data"]
last = trades[-1]
print(last["ticker"], last["yes_bid"], last["yes_ask"])
book = requests.get(
f"{API}/book",
headers=H,
params={
"source": "kalshi",
"market": "KXRATECUT-26DEC31-T1",
"at": "2026-10-22T12:30:00Z",
"depth": 10,
},
timeout=30,
).json()
print(book.get("spread"), len(trades))FAQ
KXRATECUT Rate Cuts: common questions
How is KXRATECUT different from the KXFED series?
KXFED asks where rates will be after a specific meeting; KXRATECUT asks about the cumulative number of cuts in a window. The latter integrates the whole path and is slower to move.
Why are some days almost empty?
Long-dated path markets trade mainly around data releases and Fed speakers. Between those events the book barely updates.
What moves KXRATECUT prices?
Cumulative economic data, particularly inflation and labour reports; changes in the Fed's dot plot at quarterly meetings; and shocks that change the expected terminal rate, such as tariffs or financial stress.
How much KXRATECUT history is available?
Recording began 2026-10-01 and is forward-only. At the time of this page that is 25 days, 33.0K events and about 1,320 events a day.
How do I query KXRATECUT data with the API?
Use market=<full ticker> such as KXRATECUT-26DEC31-T1 with source=kalshi on /v1/trades or /v1/book, or ask the MCP server for the series by name. The snippets on this page are ready to run with your API key.
Backtest KXRATECUT Rate Cuts with real tick data
Get an API key, pull your first window and join it with the other sources in the catalog.