Kalshi KXFED: Federal Reserve rate decision — order book & trade data
66.0K book and trade events for Kalshi's federal reserve rate decision markets, recorded live since 2026-10-01 — about 2,640 events a day.
Coverage
KXFED Fed Rate Decision data coverage
What is recorded, how often it updates and how much there is.
Recording since
2026-10-01
25 days so far · no backfill
Events recorded
66,000
≈ 66.0K as of 2026-10-25
Avg events / day
2,640
book snapshot · book delta · trade
Update frequency
Order-book snapshots, deltas and trades streamed in real time
Daily activity · last 25 days
Indicative daily event volume, last 25 days to 2026-10-25. Shape modeled from collector stats; mean matches the average events/day above.
About this market
What is KXFED Fed Rate Decision?
The Fed series (KXFED, formerly listed as FED) prices where the federal funds target range will be after each FOMC meeting; trading is steady for weeks and then explodes into the decision. AymarData has been recording the KXFED series since 2026-10-01 and holds 66.0K events so far — about 2,640 a day. History is forward-only; we record live and do not backfill Kalshi.
Contracts list a ladder of rate levels for each meeting, so YES prices form a probability distribution over the decision. The market is dominated by macro desks and prediction-market specialists, with deep resting liquidity at the likely outcomes and sparse quotes in the tails.
Fed data is ideal for event studies: align the order book with the FOMC statement timestamp and measure how quickly liquidity returns after the release. Pair it with CPI, GDP and rate-cut series for the full macro calendar, and with BTC data to see crypto's reaction.
What moves KXFED
- Inflation and labour-market releases between meetings, especially CPI and payrolls
- Fed speakers and the minutes, which shift the odds of a cut or hold
- The FOMC statement and press conference, which reprice the whole ladder in seconds
Schema
KXFED Fed Rate Decision fields and sample rows
The same columns are returned by the API and in Parquet and CSV files.
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| ts_ms | int64 | Exchange event time, Unix milliseconds |
| ticker | string | Full Kalshi market ticker |
| event_type | string | book_snapshot | book_delta | trade |
| side | string | buy / sell on trades; bid / ask on book events |
| yes_bid | number | Best YES bid, 0–1 dollars |
| yes_ask | number | Best YES ask, 0–1 dollars |
| volume | int64 | Contracts traded or resting at the level |
Sample rows
| ts_ms | ticker | event_type | side | yes_bid | yes_ask | volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1792692015521 | KXFED-26DEC-T3.50 | book_snapshot | bid | 0.81 | 0.83 | 1444 |
| 1792692016338 | KXFED-26DEC-T3.75 | trade | buy | 0.46 | 0.48 | 1247 |
| 1792692017555 | KXFED-26DEC-T4.00 | book_delta | ask | 0.09 | 0.11 | 3090 |
Illustrative rows for the KXFED series; tickers follow Kalshi's naming and prices are YES quotes in dollars (0–1).
Code
Pull KXFED Fed Rate Decision in Python, cURL or MCP
Market id: KXFED-26DEC-T3.50. Export AYMARDATA_API_KEY from your dashboard, then run the Python requests example.
import os
import requests
API = "https://api.aymardata.com/v1"
KEY = os.environ["AYMARDATA_API_KEY"] # export AYMARDATA_API_KEY=ad_live_…
H = {"Authorization": f"Bearer {KEY}", "User-Agent": "aymardata-docs/1.0"}
# KXFED: ten minutes of trades and book updates for one contract
trades = requests.get(
f"{API}/trades",
headers=H,
params={
"source": "kalshi",
"market": "KXFED-26DEC-T3.50",
"start": "2026-10-22T17:55:00Z",
"end": "2026-10-22T18:05:00Z",
"limit": 500,
},
timeout=30,
).json()["data"]
last = trades[-1]
print(last["ticker"], last["yes_bid"], last["yes_ask"])
book = requests.get(
f"{API}/book",
headers=H,
params={
"source": "kalshi",
"market": "KXFED-26DEC-T3.50",
"at": "2026-10-22T18:00:00Z",
"depth": 10,
},
timeout=30,
).json()
print(book.get("spread"), len(trades))FAQ
KXFED Fed Rate Decision: common questions
What does a KXFED ticker look like?
KXFED-<meeting month>-T<upper bound of the target range>, for example KXFED-26DEC-T3.75: the probability that the target range's upper bound is above 3.75% after the December meeting.
How does Kalshi's Fed market behave on decision day?
Activity is a fraction of normal in the hours before the statement, then spikes within seconds of it. Because we record every book update, you can see market makers pulling quotes just ahead of 2pm ET and re-posting within moments afterward.
What moves KXFED prices?
Inflation and labour-market releases between meetings, especially CPI and payrolls; Fed speakers and the minutes, which shift the odds of a cut or hold; and the FOMC statement and press conference, which reprice the whole ladder in seconds.
How much KXFED history is available?
Recording began 2026-10-01 and is forward-only. At the time of this page that is 25 days, 66.0K events and about 2,640 events a day.
How do I query KXFED data with the API?
Use market=<full ticker> such as KXFED-26DEC-T3.50 with source=kalshi on /v1/trades or /v1/book, or ask the MCP server for the series by name. The snippets on this page are ready to run with your API key.
Backtest KXFED Fed Rate Decision with real tick data
Get an API key, pull your first window and join it with the other sources in the catalog.