Kalshi KXGDP: US GDP growth (quarterly, annualized) — order book & trade data
30.8K book and trade events for Kalshi's us gdp growth (quarterly, annualized) markets, recorded live since 2026-10-01 — about 1,232 events a day.
Coverage
KXGDP US GDP data coverage
What is recorded, how often it updates and how much there is.
Recording since
2026-10-01
25 days so far · no backfill
Events recorded
30,800
≈ 30.8K as of 2026-10-25
Avg events / day
1,232
book snapshot · book delta · trade
Update frequency
Order-book snapshots, deltas and trades streamed in real time
Daily activity · last 25 days
Indicative daily event volume, last 25 days to 2026-10-25. Shape modeled from collector stats; mean matches the average events/day above.
About this market
What is KXGDP US GDP?
KXGDP prices the advance estimate of US quarterly GDP growth, a once-a-quarter event that concentrates the whole series' activity into a few days around the release. AymarData has been recording the KXGDP series since 2026-10-01 and holds 30.8K events so far — about 1,232 a day. History is forward-only; we record live and do not backfill Kalshi.
Contracts span a ladder of annualized growth rates. Since the number is revised twice, the 'advance' estimate that Kalshi settles on is the most-watched; Atlanta Fed GDPNow and bank forecasts supply the market's anchors, and the series reflects how closely traders track them.
KXGDP is useful for studying how a prediction market converges on a macro number over a long window: GDPNow revisions in the weeks before release should show up in the book, and the final-day data shows how much uncertainty remains.
What moves KXGDP
- The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast, which updates as data comes in
- Inventory and net-export swings that make quarterly prints volatile
- Consumer spending and labour data released in the weeks before
Schema
KXGDP US GDP fields and sample rows
The same columns are returned by the API and in Parquet and CSV files.
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| ts_ms | int64 | Exchange event time, Unix milliseconds |
| ticker | string | Full Kalshi market ticker |
| event_type | string | book_snapshot | book_delta | trade |
| side | string | buy / sell on trades; bid / ask on book events |
| yes_bid | number | Best YES bid, 0–1 dollars |
| yes_ask | number | Best YES ask, 0–1 dollars |
| volume | int64 | Contracts traded or resting at the level |
Sample rows
| ts_ms | ticker | event_type | side | yes_bid | yes_ask | volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1792672203297 | KXGDP-26OCT30-T2.0 | book_snapshot | bid | 0.77 | 0.81 | 2179 |
| 1792672204228 | KXGDP-26OCT30-T2.5 | trade | buy | 0.52 | 0.56 | 1248 |
| 1792672205389 | KXGDP-26OCT30-T3.0 | book_delta | ask | 0.24 | 0.28 | 479 |
Illustrative rows for the KXGDP series; tickers follow Kalshi's naming and prices are YES quotes in dollars (0–1).
Code
Pull KXGDP US GDP in Python, cURL or MCP
Market id: KXGDP-26OCT30-T2.0. Export AYMARDATA_API_KEY from your dashboard, then run the Python requests example.
import os
import requests
API = "https://api.aymardata.com/v1"
KEY = os.environ["AYMARDATA_API_KEY"] # export AYMARDATA_API_KEY=ad_live_…
H = {"Authorization": f"Bearer {KEY}", "User-Agent": "aymardata-docs/1.0"}
# KXGDP: ten minutes of trades and book updates for one contract
trades = requests.get(
f"{API}/trades",
headers=H,
params={
"source": "kalshi",
"market": "KXGDP-26OCT30-T2.0",
"start": "2026-10-22T12:25:00Z",
"end": "2026-10-22T12:35:00Z",
"limit": 500,
},
timeout=30,
).json()["data"]
last = trades[-1]
print(last["ticker"], last["yes_bid"], last["yes_ask"])
book = requests.get(
f"{API}/book",
headers=H,
params={
"source": "kalshi",
"market": "KXGDP-26OCT30-T2.0",
"at": "2026-10-22T12:30:00Z",
"depth": 10,
},
timeout=30,
).json()
print(book.get("spread"), len(trades))FAQ
KXGDP US GDP: common questions
How often does the KXGDP market produce data?
Quarterly cycles with concentrated activity: modest trading while GDPNow evolves, and a burst around the advance-estimate release at 8:30 ET. Expect low event counts on most days and high ones on release days.
Which release does KXGDP settle on?
The advance estimate unless the market's rules say otherwise. Always confirm the settlement source in the contract terms before building a settlement model.
What moves KXGDP prices?
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast, which updates as data comes in; inventory and net-export swings that make quarterly prints volatile; and consumer spending and labour data released in the weeks before.
How much KXGDP history is available?
Recording began 2026-10-01 and is forward-only. At the time of this page that is 25 days, 30.8K events and about 1,232 events a day.
How do I query KXGDP data with the API?
Use market=<full ticker> such as KXGDP-26OCT30-T2.0 with source=kalshi on /v1/trades or /v1/book, or ask the MCP server for the series by name. The snippets on this page are ready to run with your API key.
Backtest KXGDP US GDP with real tick data
Get an API key, pull your first window and join it with the other sources in the catalog.